Global Markets – Weekly Review 2

***Monitoring Equities closely next week.***

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – NEW SIGNALS & COMMENTS

• The bounce in U.S. Stocks is approaching targets for a potential failure.

  • Risk conditions outlined in last week’s Review are now at hand.

  • We’ll cover signals I’m watching *closely* to increase conviction on the Short side.

  • Next week will be *critical* in my view – looking for confirmation either way.

  • I’ll follow up with a special Market Note mid-week if I see conditions line up.

• China remains in a confirmed NEW Bull Market – the strong extension rally this week opens important new medium-term upside targets.

• The pullback in Bond Yields may be nearly over.

  • We’ll cover signals I’m watching closely to confirm a turn UP.

• The pullback in the Dollar may be nearly over.

  • We’ll cover signals I’m watching closely to confirm a turn UP.

• Oil and Energy Stocks are testing key support and look interesting again.

• Precious Metals continue to consolidate for now.

  • Price action was relatively poor this week, despite the positive news catalysts.

  • “If they can’t rally on good news…”

• Momentum in Crypto is turning negative – be careful with this setup.

  • All things considered, price action has been poor despite Halving and big ETF flows.

  • We’ll cover signals keeping me on the sidelines for now – and importantly, what would get me “back in”.

SECTION 1:

CORE MODELS & DATA

Core Risk continues to recover after turning UP last week.

• In last week’s Review, I wrote: “with this turn UP confirmed, look for ‘a’ bottom and potential sharp retracement bounce lasting ideally 1-2 weeks.”

• Weekly Sell signals remain active, and I continue to think a rally back to the highs is a lower-probability scenario.

• Critically, the market is coming up on important price AND time targets for a potential failure.

• Next, we’ll cover signals I’m watching *closely* next week to increase conviction on the Short side.