Check. Mate.

Chain Reaction vs. The Chorus of Rubbish.

On Tuesday, I proposed a framework entirely different from the mainstream consensus view:

If the Chain Reaction framework is even partially correct, then Monday was the GLIMPSE of a major opportunity.

[…]

Maybe world trade / globalization have a chance of actually improving after this mess?

Talk about having a contrarian view… this seems like an impossible outcome.

But then again: impossible things tend to happen after markets price them at zero.

Yesterday morning, I added in Substack Chat:

No one knows how today will end, but we have the absolute worst possible news out there including (1) chaos in Rates markets, (2) escalation from China, (3) escalation from Europe, (4) social media talking about incoming depression (if this trade war continues), meanwhile (5) SPY is down $2.50 from the close, Silver is up nearly 2%, and Bitcoin is flat. Unbelievable to even consider this is happening, but for now, it is. Long way until the close, so we'll see what today has to offer.

Wednesday’s rally was one of the most powerful the Stock Market has ever produced:

• The biggest single-day gain in Semiconductor Stocks in history.

• The 2nd biggest single-day gain in NDX since inception (1971).

• The 3rd biggest single-day gain in S&P since inception (1957, or nearly 70 years).

• The 3rd biggest single-day gain in the Nasdaq since inception (1985).

• The biggest single-day spot VIX collapse in history.

This week has unequivocally produced one of the most consequential moments in world and market history.

(A moment with lasting significance.)

So what is the path from here? Let’s (again) look through the history books, in order to glean some insight and guidance…

---

My Open Book