CHART OF THE WEEK:
GOOD LUCK WITH THAT
One of many datasets and indicators flashing orange/red as we head into 2025…
After one of the best 12-month rallies ever, and with Stock flows & positioning near the most crowded levels in history, what if 2025 is more volatile than what everyone’s grown accustomed to?
EXTREME COMPLACENCY IS EVERYWHERE…
Beware extreme complacency — especially when even a moderately cautious view is considered deeply contrarian...
Stock positioning today is among the most levered and unstable in history — a theme we’ve detailed extensively in recent posts HERE, HERE and HERE.
We’ve covered some of the KEY signals to watch for a turn in Momentum, which could trigger a significant Stock Market correction.
Meanwhile, everyone is —in some way— FULLY INVESTED in the Bull Market.
Another example:
“Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 2025 targets by 20% (vs 2024 marks) and 11% above the spot S&P 500 (~6,700). This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record. We’ve been talking about the chase dynamic all year...Odds are it ramps up this month...” SOURCE: Warren Pies — follow him on X @WarrenPies
As before:
We’ll continue to assess the TIMING and SCENARIOS into year-end and 2025.
Next year should be very interesting… stay tuned.
TRIBUTE TO A FRIEND
The world lost a great one this week.
There are no words to describe Art Cashin.
But I’ll share a quick story…
Years ago when I was writing for some investors and clients (which later opened some doors to learn from some of the best in the world), I sent Art some research and asked if he wanted to read my work.
His response…
And so began a friendship of many years.
From that day forward, I was excited (and terrified) that he was reading. Every report would have to be perfect.
I never expected or asked for anything, but Art quoted my work over the years… which opened some life-changing doors for me.
He even invited me to visit the NYSE, where he introduced me to his friends on the floor (basically everybody who worked there).
For many years after that, I met Art at their “secret spot” (which wasn’t really a secret at all) near the exchange, to drink with the Friends of Fermentation — a one-of-a-kind education on Markets… with familiar faces, and often with returning guests who were visiting town.
Art had too many legendary quotes to list here — but there was one which always made me laugh out loud…
“Today’s session was a waste of carfare and a clean shirt.”
Art Cashin thrived in volatile markets.
Every day for more than two decades, I read his morning note and watched him on TV.
Sometimes, I was lucky to hear him in person, and every time, I learned even more.
He was everything a Trader aspired to be.
He loved every aspect of the game.
Art, thank you for everything — the world will never be same.
Thanks for reading.
Onwards and upwards, -MC
ABOUT: macrocharts.substack.com/about
X: x.com/MacroCharts
May Art rest in peace.